November 3, 2020 will be election day for the post
of President of the USA, the fourth largest country in the world in size and
with a population of more than 300 million inhabitants. The country is still
the largest political, economic, cultural and military power on the planet. Its
biggest challenger in these fields today is China, replacing the former Soviet Union in this
condition.
The election is contested by Republican candidate
Donald Trump, the current president seeking re-election, and Democratic candidate
Joe Biden. The winner will hold the position at the White House for the next 4
years starting in January 2021.
In the USA the election is indirect, that is,
voters vote for their state's party delegates, who will elect the president.
There are 50 states and the District of Columbia, where the capital Washington
is located, and each state has the number of delegates according to the size of
its population. The states with the most delegates are California (55), Texas
(38), New York (29) and Florida (29). Smaller states in population like
Montana, Vermont, Delaware and Wioming have only 3 delegates. The winning
candidate from each state takes all delegates from the state.
In the total sum of the States, there are 538
delegates, and the winner must add at least 270 delegates. It is worth
remembering that voting in the USA is not mandatory. The term of office is four
years, with the right to a re-election. Trump seeks re-election.
Two states, Maine (4) and Nebraska (5) have
different rules for distributing the votes of the states, in which the winner
does not take all the votes, but as each of them hangs to one side and they
have few votes, they do not usually make a difference in elections.
About the
candidates
Joe Biden is running for the Democratic party, with
Kamala Harris, his runner-up.
Biden has been a lawyer and politician since the
1970s, being elected senator by the State of Delaware in 1972 and re-elected
six times in a row. Then he was vice president of the USA for eight years (2009
to 2016), in both Obama's terms.
Donald Trump, the current president, and Mike
Pence, his deputy, who is also his deputy currently in the White House, are
running for the Republican party.
Trump was born and raised in Queens, one of New
York's five districts, and has a degree in economics from the University of
Pennsylvania in 1968. He is a real estate entrepreneur and also a television
personality. During his career, Trump built office towers, hotels, casinos,
golf courses and other facilities with his brand around the world. Trump also
owned the Miss USA beauty contest between 1996 and 2015, made brief appearances
in films and television series, and presented and co-produced the program The
Apprentice, a reality show that was broadcast on NBC between 2004 and 2015. It
Trump's catchphrase “You're fired”, the program's trademark.
Donald Trump is a true showman, has a great
facility for communication and debate, which earned him overwhelming victories
in the debates and confrontations with Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
Trump usually calls and bullies his opponents , Joe Biden himself he calls “Joe
sleeper” for example.
The previous 2016 election
Contrary to virtually all polls conducted by the
mainstream American media, which pointed to an easy victory for Hillary Clinton
and pointed to Donald Trump as a zebra in the election. Trump won, and he won
in 10 states more than Hillary.
Days before the election, Hillary's victory was
only 1.20 odd, against a 5.00 odd for Trump's victory in the main houses.
But Donald Trump won in 30 states and won 304
votes, and Hillary won in 20 states + the District of Columbia (DC) and won 227
votes. A significant difference between 10 states and 77 votes, although
Hillary has made almost 3 million more votes in total.
The 2020 election
We will predict the winner here in each of the 50
states, plus the District of Columbia, and then point out the final winner.
Totaling 52 bets.
At first we will talk about the States where the
victory of one side is already considered certain. In these states, one of
these two parties is much stronger than the other.
They are the states of the Republican Red Wall, and
the Democratic Blue Wall. In this election, 36 states are in this condition, 21
on the Red Wall, and 15 plus the District of Columbia (DC) on the Blue Wall.
The expression “wall” can also be described in the
media as “wall” or “wall”. Here I will treat them as Republican Wall (MR) and
Democratic Wall (MD).
Obs: Unlike the rest of the world, in the United
States, the Republicans, more conservative and the right, won the national
media the color red as a representation, and the Democrats, more liberal, the
color blue, however the parties do not recognize this representation. In the
1960s the media divided both by taking the colors of the American flag only,
without ideological overtones.
Then we will talk about the States that make up the
Swing States, 14 states that I consider to be legitimate Swing States in 2020.
This is where the election will really be decided. We will also talk about the
states of the “Rust belt”
In California and New York, for example, the
Democrats 'victory is certain, together these two already have 84 votes for
Biden, in Texas the Republicans' victory is usually almost certain. Florida is
a Swing State. It is also almost certain that as in 2016, Democrats will add
more votes in total, yet in 2016 the Republicans won with Trump.
The Republican Wall (MR)
The Republican Wall, or red wall, is historically
composed of 24 states, which give a total of 206 votes to the party. Usually
with a good margin of advantage for Republicans, ranging from 55% to 70% of the
votes in some states, and also with little occurrence of Swing States, only two
currently. Republican performance in these states is overwhelmingly
overwhelming in the last 12 elections, with scores (10/10), (9/10), (11/12) and
(12/12) victories in their favor being common.
They are States located throughout the vast
interior of the country, in the South and Southeast, in the midwest, in the
center, also some States in the Great Lakes region, and in the West of the
country (with the exception of the three Pacific Coast States).
Many of these states have a strong agrarian
economy, being located within the so-called agricultural belts, such as the
cotton belt, the rice belt, the wheat belt and the corn belt. There are other
agricultural belts, but these four are the main ones.
Much of the southern United States is probably also
certainly republican, as six other states in that general region have not voted
for a Democrat since southern Bill Clinton in 1996, and the Deep South, which
is within the cotton belt, is almost solidly republican in its senators and
governors.
MR's two Swing States in 2020 are North Carolina
(15) and Arizona (11), which together add up to 26 votes. Traditionally they
have always been Republicans, but have been threatened by Democrats. Georgia
(16) was once considered a Swing State. But today it is considered recovered by
the Republicans.
If we take those two states and Georgia out
(although Trump is a favorite), the pure Republican Wall for 2020 will have 21
states and 164 votes pretty much right for Republicans. Which are:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), South
Carolina (9), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Idaho (4), Indiana (11),
Kansas (6) , Kentuck (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10),
Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6) ,
Virginia Oc. (5), Wyoming (3).
As it turns out, they are mostly states with few
votes in the electoral college, Texas with 38 votes is the largest college.
Although with fewer votes, she is stronger than MD, being very rarely broken by
Democrats, only Bill Clinton in the 1990s had any success in her.
With the exception of Alaska, Montana and Indiana,
all states on the wall belong in whole or in part to the so-called bible belt,
or to the Mormon belt (or Mormon belt) or other traditional Protestant churches
that are strong in the US , like Batista who is strong in the South. In these
places the Christian church is of great importance in the lives of families,
and Republicans are strong there.
In the 1990s, the wall was breached by Democrat
Bill Clinton in Arkansas, Missouri, Kentuck, Tennessee and Louisiana, in the
two elections he won in 1992 and 1996, but shortly afterwards it was recovered
by the Republicans. So much so that in these 5 states the Republicans have a
score (12/9) of victories, but also a score (5/5), which shows the recovery,
winning the last 5 elections. Nor did Obama win there, Bill Clinton won just
because he was from that region, born in Arkansas, a fact that earned him
victory in those states at that time.
In 2016, Trump won in all 24 MR states, taking all
206 votes from the electoral college and fueling his victory over Democrat
Hillary Clinton.
Although they are suffering a little bit of
harassment at their biggest electoral college, which is Texas, and where
Republicans need to start worrying for this and the next elections, because
there is no way Republicans can win any election if they don't win in the
Texas.
Closing the MR forecast, I bet Trump will win in
these 21 states that remain, and if so, he will then have those 164 votes. It
will not be necessary to speak more of these states individually.
The Democratic Wall (MD)
The Democratic Wall or Blue Wall, is a term used by
political analysts to refer to the 18 states, plus the District of Columbia
(DC), which the Democratic party won consistently in the six elections of 1992
with Bill Clinton to 2012 with Obama , and would give 242 votes to Democrats at
the Electoral College. You can add two more states, New Hampshire and New
Mexico, where Democrats have won six of the last seven elections, but are
tighter percentages in them. In total, these 20 States + DC, would give 251
votes to the party (very close to the 270 needed).
It’s a strong wall in some key states, with certain
Democratic victories, and one that yields many delegates, like California (55
votes) and the nation’s largest electoral college, New York (29 votes), the 3rd
largest alongside Florida, and Illinois (20).
However in other states it is much more vulnerable
than the MR, to be disrupted by Republicans. George W. Bush broke it in some
states in 2004 and Trump in 2016 as well. Even Republicans who lost the
election eventually succeeded.
In the 2016 elections, Donald Trump broke through
the Democratic Wall in three states that are part of the Rust Belt, (Michigan,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), and almost broke into two others (Minnesotta and
Maine), stealing 46 Democratic votes and almost taking out another 14 .
For the 2020 election, MD even lost some states
that are now considered Swing States. For despite the fact that they have good
scores in favor of the Democrats, this year's elections point to a balance of
votes. This is the case of Minnesotta, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin. So by the score of Democratic victories, these five states are
MD, but because of the balanced percentage of votes they are Swing States in
2020.
The states of MD are mostly located in the
northeast of the country and in the Great Lakes region. States like New York
for example, are very urbanized states with metropolises well known worldwide,
most of the MD is in this region of the country, the other part of the MD is on
the other side of the country, in the three states of the west coast of the
Pacific, California, Oregon and Washington (Do not confuse the State of
Washington in the extreme northwest of the country, with the District of
Columbia where the capital Washington is, on the other side of the country).
They are states with a lot of economic, political and cultural strength, as
well as strong in relation to the media as well, and that end up exercising
this strength not only within the country, but throughout the West and the rest
of the world.
Thus, a Democratic Wall for 2020, dehydrated and
without its Swing States looks like this:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3),
District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maryland (10),
Massachusetts (11), Maine (4), New Jersey ( 14), New York (29), New Mexico (5),
Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3) Washington (12).
Here are 15 states plus the District of Columbia
that give Democrats 191 certain votes. That is my bet in these States.
Thus, we see that the MD, although bigger than the
MR in votes, is more vulnerable to being broken by the other side. This depends
a lot on the candidates who present themselves on both sides, their proposals,
their rejection rate and their charisma to bring voters to the polls on
election day in a country where voting is not mandatory.
The Rust Belt States
The Rust Belt is made up of seven American states,
taking part of the American Northeast and part of the Great Lakes region of the
USA. They are: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and
Wisconsin. It was known until the 1970s as a manufacturing belt, but the
expression Rust Belt gained popularity in the country in the 1980s due to the
economic, population and urban decay that hit this once great and powerful
industrial region, whose The economy was based mainly on heavy industry in the
steel, mechanical, metallurgical, automotive, petrochemical, food and textile
sectors.
This region has been suffering since that time with
unemployment and migration to other parts of the country, the local industry
has lost prominence with the arrival of foreign competition, such as Japanese
competition in the automobile industry, for example.
In electoral terms, these seven states of the rust
belt add up together, 86 votes in the electoral college, and some of them like
Iowa and Ohio are pure swing states.
The Rust Belt was the big move and the big secret
of Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Here Trump won in all
seven states and caught the 86 delegates for him. Here Trump won in the two
swing states too, Iowa and Ohio, and here Trump even broke through the
Democratic Wall in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It was exactly here
that Trump won the 2016 election.
While Hillary was entertained with her boring and
somewhat robotic speeches, with her speeches looking like rehearsed, always
speaking about minorities. Trump managed to bring the working class of the
"rust belt" together, and he won by promising to bring jobs back to
workers in this extensive region, jobs that they have been losing continually
to third world countries like Mexico, but mainly to China.
Leaving off the rust belt, another key point that
ensured Trump's victory in 2016, was the support he obtained from farmers,
large and small, in the states where rural production is very strong, they are
states in the midwest, center and west of the country. which are inside the
rice belt, corn belt, cotton belt, wheat belt. States where Republicans have
always dominated, but where there are also many states considered swing states,
and where Trump ended up winning. Obama had good agreements with these farmers
and that had already been a key point of the Democratic victories with Obama in
2008 and 2012, but 2016 was Trump who managed to impose himself in the region.
The Swing Sates
In the 2020 elections, 13 states are placed by
American analysts as part of the "Swing States", also called
"balance states" or "pendulum states". In these states, the
winning candidate in 2020 is still unknown, the dispute is fierce in them.
Of these thirteen states, six of them have been
running for many elections as pure swing states, voting now on one side, now on
the other. Are they:
Colorado (9 votes), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada
(6), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).
Together they add up to 81 votes, as it turns out,
Florida is the largest of these colleges with 29 votes.
Iowa (6 votes) and Virginia (13 votes), in the past
they even belonged to the Democratic wall, but in the present they present
themselves as swing states, since they started to oscillate the winner in the
21st century.
With regard to the 2016 elections, Georgia (16
votes) ceased to be a swing state for analysts and returned to Republicans, and
Arizona (11 votes), which is part of the Republican wall (11/11), entered, as
it is suffering democratic harassment to some elections. However, although
favorites, the Republican victory in Georgia cannot be considered as “counted
beans”.
Two Swing State states, Arizona (11 votes) and
North Carolina (15) historically belong to the Republican Wall, Republicans
have won 9 of the last 10 elections in North Carolina and 11 of the last 12 in
Arizona. But it has been suffering harassment from Democrats in the last
elections that are making good percentages of votes there, and therefore, they
entered the swing states, North Carolina in 2016 and Arizona now in 2020.
And the other five states of the Swing State,
Michigan (16 votes), Minnesotta (10), New Hamphire (4), Pennsylvania (20) and
Wisconsin (10), historically belong to the Democratic Wall, Democrats won about
90% of the elections combined in these states since the 1980s, in Minnesotta,
for example, won the last 11 elections, but in the last one the difference was
only 1.5%. These states have been experiencing republican harassment for some
time, which is why they are now considered swing states.
So, in total we have in 2020, 13 swing states,
which count 167 votes that will decide the American elections in 2020. I still
add Georgia, with 16 votes. And increase to 14 states and a total of 183 votes
in real dispute.
Who will
win in Swing States?
Here we will make a more individual analysis of
these 14 states, in order to bet with more clarity and more degree of certainty
on the winner. This is where the big winner will come from. We will review
their voting history, but also the latest trends, giving greater weight to the
last elections, and also to the “rust belt” factor.
Of the seven states of the "rust belt",
five are like Swing States now, three from MD. Which is very interesting and
helps Trump again as it did in 2016.
PURE SWING STATES
Colorado (9 votes): Although at Swing State, it has
been assuming voting trends in Democrats. If even Hillary with very little
charisma among her voters managed to win here in the past election, it is
easier to bet on Biden. (winner: Joe Biden)
Florida (29): It is the state with the most votes
within the Swings States, Obama won in 2012 and Trump in 2016. I bet that once
again the vote of legal Latinos and older voters in favor of Trump, will make a
difference again. (winner: Donald Trump)
Iowa (6): It is on the border of the rust belt. He
was a Democrat in the past. It awaits another Trump mandate to economically
strengthen the region. (winner: Donald Trump)
Nevada (6): It is a neighbor of California, which
is heavily Democratic. If Hillary managed to win there in 2016, it's easier to
bet on Biden here. (winner: Joe Biden)
Ohio (18): Another state of the Rust Belt strongly
impacted by the region's crises since the 1980s, is a state that has been
showing republican growth with each election. I bet Trump will win here again.
(winner: Donald Trump)
Virginia
(13): If Trump did not break Virginia in 2016 against Hillary, he will not win
now. Trump will not break any new state in relation to 2016. Where Hillary won
in 2016, Biden will also win: (winner: Joe Biden)
SWING STATES FROM MR
Arizona (11 votes): Another MR state with a score
(11/12) that suffers Democratic harassment. Trump won there in 2016 by 4.2%
advantage. (winner: Donald Trump)
North Carolina (15): It is a state of MR with a
score (9/10), although it suffers democratic harassment that takes it to the
Swing States. (winner: Donald Trump)
Georgia (16): Polls show that Republicans are back
in power in the state and that Georgia is steadfastly returning to MR. (winner:
Donald Trump)
SWING STATES FROM MD
Michigan (16 votes): It's part of the Rsut Belt,
was once in MD, but is becoming Republican, and Trump won here in the last
election. (winner: Donald Trump)
Minnesotta (10): It's a Swing State from MD, and
Hillary won here in the last election. (winner: Joe Biden)
New Hamphire (4): Like Minnesotta, comes from MD
and Hillary won. (winner: Joe Biden)
Pennsylvania (20): The discontent of the
low-educated working class with the Democrats, coupled with Trump's plan to
bring companies back to the Rust Belt, helped Trump beat the bland Hillary in
2016 by just 1.1%. But she has always been a Democrat in the past with a score
(6/7) for them. Here Biden recovers for the Democrats. (winner: Joe Biden)
Wisconsin (10): Another victory for Trump in 2016
in a Democratic bastion, and MD also scoring (6/7), by only 1.3% advantage. It
is easier for Biden to recover. (winner: Joe Biden)
Victory completion in the 14 Swing State states:
After several factors analyzed, among them, the
winner in 2016, the trend of votes from the past based on the scores, whether
in this case it already belonged to MR or MD or is it a pure swing state, the
trend of votes to the present and future, their geographical and economic
location, mainly involving the issue of the Rust Belt.
We can conclude that, of the 14 states listed as
Swing States, Trump will win in 7 of them and get 111 more votes in them. Biden
will win in the other 7, but will get 72 delegates.
The big winner of the USA 2020 election
Final summary
In 2016, Trump won in 30 states and won 304 votes,
and Hillary won in 20 states + DC and won 227 votes. A significant difference
of 10 states and 77 votes, although Hillary cast almost 3 million more votes.
For 2020:
Trump will win in the 21 states of the pure
Republican Wall (MR), and he has 164 votes there.
Biden will win in the (15 + DC) states of the pure
Democratic Wall (MD), and there is 191.
There we have 36 + DC states with more obvious
victories, and a Democratic advantage of 27 votes.
In the remaining 14 states that are Swings States,
Trump will win in seven states and get 111 votes. Biden in seven other states
and gets 72 votes.
Final result:
Trump wins in 28 states and gets 275 votes. Biden
wins in 22 states + District of Columbia (DC) and gets 163 votes. Difference of
only 12 votes
Donald Trump will be re-elected president of the
United States of America.
USA 2020 presidential election winner: Donald Trump
@ 2.75 (bet365)
To bet on the winner of each of the 50 States + DC,
just look at the analysis made in MR, MD, and Swing States.
Swing States winners are also betting there. There
are many factors that made me determine each winner in the Swing States, in
this case: Their election history, their voting trend, which wall is closest to
them, also the issue of the "Rust Belt" states, too the pace of the
American economy even before the Covid-19 pandemic. But the main thing is,
where Hillary won in 2016, Biden will also win in 2020 because he is better and
less bland than Hillary. Trump will retain most of the states he won in 2016,
but not all, Biden will regain Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and so Trump's victory
will be tighter this time.
About the odds in the States
The odds of the MR (red wall) and MD (blue wall)
states are all always very low for the winner, and in most cases it is not even
worth catching the underdog with a high odd because it just won't happen.
Betting on the winner in these states has never been interesting.
Some odds from the 14 states of the Swing States
have melted in the last few days after polling conducted by the US press, these
polls are made all the time.
Here it is interesting to monitor the variation of
the odds on a daily basis, any odd below 1.50 is obviously never worth it. From
1.50 onwards it will depend on all the history and analysis in that State.
It is best to take odds of 1.80 to 2.20 that are
varying a lot because of opinion polls, always analyzing who will win according
to the analysis and the history of the State, which was done here.
Nilo
Neto, Brazilian, graduated in History and Administration, predicts national and
international political elections since 2016.
Even
more detailed forecasts about the Swing States: +55 55 991005114 (telegram /
whatsapp)
